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Premier League · Matchday 26Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Newcastle United12th place
MCI 68%X 20%NEW 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 184 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.9
Over 2.564%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%4.97212%8.32
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.111280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.74BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Newcastle United2-0 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Newcastle United21 February 20262-1
Newcastle United – Manchester City22 November 20252-1
Manchester City – Newcastle United15 February 20254-0
Newcastle United – Manchester City28 September 20241-1
Newcastle United – Manchester City13 January 20242-3
Manchester City – Newcastle United19 August 20231-0