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Premier League · Matchday 26Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Manchester United17th place
NFO 38%X 28%MUN 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Manchester United 0.1.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.60X28%3.58234%2.98
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.631272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Nottingham Forest17 May 20263-2
Nottingham Forest – Manchester United1 November 20252-2
Nottingham Forest – Manchester United1 April 20251-0
Manchester United – Nottingham Forest7 December 20242-3
Nottingham Forest – Manchester United30 December 20232-1
Manchester United – Nottingham Forest26 August 20233-2