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Championship · Matchday 11Friday 16 October · 20:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Exact score
Wolverhampton4th place
BUR 35%X 28%WOL 37%

What does the market say?

BurnleyDrawWolverhamptonRinvalo35%28%37%
Market30%27%43%

✓ Agree · both back Wolverhampton

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Burnley 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.3, Burnley -0.3.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Wolverhampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.87X28%3.61237%2.67
Double chance
1X63%1.60X265%1.541272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.25BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Wolverhampton1-2 probability 8.6% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Wolverhampton16 October 20261-2
Burnley – Wolverhampton24 May 20261-1
Wolverhampton – Burnley26 October 20252-3
Burnley – Wolverhampton2 April 20241-1
Wolverhampton – Burnley5 December 20231-0
Burnley – Wolverhampton24 April 20221-0