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Championship · Matchday 11Saturday 17 October · 12:30 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✕ Missed
Cardiff City17th place
MID 68%X 20%CAR 12%

What does the market say?

MiddlesbroughDrawCardiff CityRinvalo68%20%12%
Market62%20%18%

✓ Agree · both back Middlesbrough

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 172 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 1.8 points per game, Cardiff City 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 0.8, Cardiff City 0.2.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.46X20%5.04212%8.41
Double chance
1X88%1.13X232%3.151280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Cardiff City2-2 probability 4.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Middlesbrough – Cardiff City17 October 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Cardiff City4 January 20251-1
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough31 August 20240-2
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough27 April 20241-4
Middlesbrough – Cardiff City3 October 20232-0
Cardiff City – Middlesbrough11 February 20231-3