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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 11Saturday 17 October · 15:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Full time0-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Bolton Wanderers19th place
SOU 73%X 18%BOL 10%

What does the market say?

SouthamptonDrawBolton WanderersRinvalo73%18%10%
Market64%20%17%

✓ Agree · both back Southampton

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 197 rating points.
  • Southampton take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Bolton Wanderers -0.6.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.8 – 1.0
Over 2.573%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.37X18%5.70210%10.37
Double chance
1X90%1.11X227%3.681282%1.21
Goals
Over 2.573%1.36Under 2.527%3.77BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
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Rows: Southampton · Columns: Bolton Wanderers0-0 probability 2.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Bolton Wanderers17 October 20260-0