TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 11Saturday 17 October · 12:30 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Lincoln City16th place
MIL 53%X 27%LIN 20%

What does the market say?

MillwallDrawLincoln CityRinvalo53%27%20%
Market57%24%19%

✓ Agree · both back Millwall

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 98 rating points.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.8
Over 2.539%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X27%3.68220%5.11
Double chance
1X80%1.24X247%2.141273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.539%2.59Under 2.561%1.63BTTS yes42%2.37BTTS no58%1.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Lincoln City2-2 probability 3.4% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Lincoln City17 October 20262-2