TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 11Saturday 17 October · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Full time0-1Prediction wrong
Stoke City7th place
DER 41%X 29%STK 30%

What does the market say?

Derby CountyDrawStoke CityRinvalo41%29%30%
Market33%28%39%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Derby County 41%, market Stoke City 39%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Derby County score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.45X29%3.40230%3.36
Double chance
1X70%1.42X259%1.691271%1.42
Goals
Over 2.544%2.28Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Stoke City0-1 probability 8.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Stoke City17 October 20260-1
Derby County – Stoke City6 April 20262-0
Stoke City – Derby County9 August 20253-1
Derby County – Stoke City3 May 20250-0
Stoke City – Derby County2 November 20242-1
Stoke City – Derby County30 December 20211-2