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Serie A · Matchday 31Sunday 11 April · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Atalanta13th place
CAG 31%X 27%ATA 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 108 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atalanta 1.0 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.19X27%3.74242%2.39
Double chance
1X58%1.72X269%1.461273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.96Under 2.549%2.04BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atalanta – Cagliari12 September 20261-2
Cagliari – Atalanta27 April 20263-2
Atalanta – Cagliari13 December 20252-1
Atalanta – Cagliari15 February 20250-0
Cagliari – Atalanta14 December 20240-1
Cagliari – Atalanta7 April 20242-1