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Serie A · Matchday 31Sunday 11 April · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Inter2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Roma3rd place
INT 54%X 25%ROM 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Roma 0.9.
  • If Inter score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.560%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Inter win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X25%4.08222%4.58
Double chance
1X78%1.28X246%2.161276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.51BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Inter · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
InterWWWWL
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Inter19 September 20262-2
Inter – Roma5 April 20265-2
Roma – Inter18 October 20250-1
Inter – Roma27 April 20250-1
Roma – Inter20 October 20240-1
Roma – Inter10 February 20242-4