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Serie A · Matchday 31Sunday 11 April · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sassuolo15th place
NAP 64%X 22%SAS 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 154 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Sassuolo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Sassuolo -0.3.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.52214%7.20
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.781278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Sassuolo2-0 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Sassuolo17 January 20261-0
Sassuolo – Napoli23 August 20250-2
Sassuolo – Napoli28 February 20241-6
Napoli – Sassuolo27 August 20232-0
Sassuolo – Napoli17 February 20230-2
Napoli – Sassuolo29 October 20224-0