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Serie A · Matchday 31Sunday 11 April · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Milan5th place
FIO 25%X 26%MIL 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 164 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.93X26%3.79248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.93X275%1.341274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.08BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Fiorentina – Milan11 January 20261-1
Milan – Fiorentina19 October 20252-1
Milan – Fiorentina5 April 20252-2
Fiorentina – Milan6 October 20242-1
Fiorentina – Milan30 March 20241-2
Milan – Fiorentina25 November 20231-0