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Serie A · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Fiorentina17th place
CAG 38%X 28%FIO 34%

Prediction

  • If Cagliari score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Cagliari win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.64X28%3.51234%2.97
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.611272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

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Head to head

Fiorentina – Cagliari24 January 20261-2
Cagliari – Fiorentina24 August 20251-1
Cagliari – Fiorentina23 April 20251-2
Fiorentina – Cagliari8 December 20241-0
Cagliari – Fiorentina23 May 20242-3
Fiorentina – Cagliari2 October 20233-0