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Serie A · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sassuolo15th place
MIL 62%X 23%SAS 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 172 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Sassuolo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Sassuolo -0.3.
  • If Milan score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.61X23%4.40215%6.62
Double chance
1X85%1.18X238%2.641277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Sassuolo2-0 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Sassuolo – Milan11 October 20261-1
Sassuolo – Milan3 May 20262-0
Milan – Sassuolo14 December 20252-2
Sassuolo – Milan14 April 20243-3
Milan – Sassuolo30 December 20231-0
Milan – Sassuolo29 January 20232-5