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Serie A · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 17:30 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Roma3rd place
GEN 18%X 23%ROM 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 226 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Genoa -0.4.
  • Roma take 2.0 points per game away.
  • If Genoa score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.47X23%4.26258%1.72
Double chance
1X42%2.40X282%1.221277%1.31
Goals
Over 2.551%1.96Under 2.549%2.04BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Genoa17 October 20262-0
Genoa – Roma8 March 20262-1
Roma – Genoa29 December 20253-1
Roma – Genoa17 January 20253-1
Genoa – Roma15 September 20241-1
Roma – Genoa19 May 20241-0