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Serie A · Matchday 13Sunday 29 November · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Milan5th place
CAG 22%X 25%MIL 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 177 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.51X25%3.97253%1.90
Double chance
1X47%2.11X278%1.281275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Cagliari24 May 20261-2
Cagliari – Milan2 January 20260-1
Milan – Cagliari11 January 20251-1
Cagliari – Milan9 November 20243-3
Milan – Cagliari11 May 20245-1
Cagliari – Milan27 September 20231-3