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Serie A · Matchday 13Sunday 29 November · 17:30 · Stadio Via del mare
Lecce14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Atalanta13th place
LEC 26%X 26%ATA 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 141 rating points.
  • If Lecce score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.83X26%3.91248%2.07
Double chance
1X52%1.94X274%1.351274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lecce · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Atalanta6 April 20260-3
Atalanta – Lecce14 September 20254-1
Atalanta – Lecce27 April 20251-1
Lecce – Atalanta19 August 20240-4
Lecce – Atalanta18 May 20240-2
Atalanta – Lecce30 December 20231-0