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Serie A · Matchday 13Sunday 29 November · 17:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Napoli8th place
SAS 21%X 24%NAP 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 154 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Sassuolo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Sassuolo -0.3.
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.83X24%4.15255%1.81
Double chance
1X45%2.23X279%1.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Sassuolo17 January 20261-0
Sassuolo – Napoli23 August 20250-2
Sassuolo – Napoli28 February 20241-6
Napoli – Sassuolo27 August 20232-0
Sassuolo – Napoli17 February 20230-2
Napoli – Sassuolo29 October 20224-0