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Serie A · Matchday 13Sunday 29 November · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Monza16th place
ROM 76%X 16%MON 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 342 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • Roma take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Roma score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.9 – 0.9
Over 2.573%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.31X16%6.2528%12.90
Double chance
1X92%1.08X224%4.211284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.573%1.36Under 2.527%3.75BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Monza2-0 probability 9.2%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Roma – Monza24 February 20254-0
Monza – Roma6 October 20241-1
Monza – Roma2 March 20241-4
Roma – Monza22 October 20231-0
Monza – Roma3 May 20231-1
Roma – Monza30 August 20223-0