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Picks
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Serie A · Matchday 33Sunday 25 April · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monza16th place
CAG 47%X 27%MON 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Cagliari lead by 84 rating points.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Cagliari win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X27%3.71226%3.87
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.891273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Monza1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Cagliari19 October 20264-0
Cagliari – Monza30 March 20253-0
Monza – Cagliari5 January 20251-2
Monza – Cagliari16 March 20241-0
Cagliari – Monza26 November 20231-1