TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 33Sunday 25 April · 17:30 · Stadio Via del mare
Lecce14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Milan5th place
LEC 19%X 24%MIL 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 210 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Lecce 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Lecce score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.17X24%4.18257%1.76
Double chance
1X43%2.31X281%1.241276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes50%1.98BTTS no50%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lecce · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Lecce20 September 20263-0
Milan – Lecce18 January 20261-0
Lecce – Milan29 August 20250-2
Lecce – Milan8 March 20252-3
Milan – Lecce27 September 20243-0
Milan – Lecce6 April 20243-0