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Serie A · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Napoli8th place
CAG 21%X 25%NAP 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 159 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.548%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.82X25%4.00254%1.84
Double chance
1X46%2.19X279%1.261275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Cagliari – Napoli20 March 20260-1
Napoli – Cagliari30 August 20251-0
Napoli – Cagliari23 May 20252-0
Cagliari – Napoli15 September 20240-4
Cagliari – Napoli25 February 20241-1
Napoli – Cagliari16 December 20232-1