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Serie A · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Bologna9th place
ROM 58%X 25%BOL 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 154 rating points.
  • Roma take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Bologna 0.1.
  • If Roma score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.552%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.73X25%4.07218%5.66
Double chance
1X82%1.21X242%2.371275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Bologna1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Bologna – Roma25 April 20260-2
Roma – Bologna23 August 20251-0
Bologna – Roma12 January 20252-2
Roma – Bologna10 November 20242-3
Roma – Bologna22 April 20241-3
Bologna – Roma17 December 20232-0