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Serie A · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 17:30 · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Udinese19th place
FRO 49%X 25%UDI 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Frosinone 2.0 points per game, Udinese 0.2.
  • Frosinone lead by 96 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Frosinone -0.4, Udinese -1.1.
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Udinese score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.4
Over 2.565%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Frosinone win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X25%3.96225%3.94
Double chance
1X75%1.34X251%1.981275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.86BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Frosinone · Columns: Udinese1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

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Head to head

Frosinone – Udinese26 May 20240-1
Udinese – Frosinone2 September 20230-0