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Serie A · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 17:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Atalanta13th place
SAS 33%X 26%ATA 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 104 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atalanta 1.0 points per game, Sassuolo 0.2.
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.559%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.04X26%3.82241%2.44
Double chance
1X59%1.69X267%1.491274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Atalanta – Sassuolo23 August 20262-1
Sassuolo – Atalanta1 March 20262-1
Atalanta – Sassuolo9 November 20250-3
Atalanta – Sassuolo17 February 20243-0
Sassuolo – Atalanta20 August 20230-2
Sassuolo – Atalanta4 February 20231-0