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Serie A · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Monza16th place
MIL 68%X 20%MON 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 261 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • If Milan score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.0
Over 2.566%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%4.95212%8.51
Double chance
1X88%1.13X232%3.131280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.95BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Monza2-0 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Milan – Monza24 May 20252-0
Monza – Milan2 November 20240-1
Monza – Milan18 February 20244-2
Milan – Monza17 December 20233-0
Monza – Milan18 February 20230-1
Milan – Monza22 October 20224-1