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Serie A · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 17:30 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Roma3rd place
CAG 17%X 22%ROM 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 258 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 44% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.554%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.87X22%4.55261%1.64
Double chance
1X39%2.56X283%1.211278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.20BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Cagliari27 October 20264-2
Roma – Cagliari9 February 20262-0
Cagliari – Roma7 December 20251-0
Roma – Cagliari16 March 20251-0
Cagliari – Roma18 August 20240-0
Roma – Cagliari5 February 20244-0