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Serie A · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Genoa11th place
COM 64%X 23%GEN 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Como lead by 191 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Como 0.6, Genoa -0.4.
  • Como take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Como score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.545%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X23%4.37213%7.67
Double chance
1X87%1.15X236%2.781277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes42%2.39BTTS no58%1.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Como · Columns: Genoa1-0 probability 14.3%

Form

Compare →
ComoDWWWW
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Genoa – Como4 September 20261-4
Genoa – Como26 April 20260-2
Como – Genoa15 September 20251-1
Como – Genoa27 April 20251-0
Genoa – Como7 November 20241-1