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Serie A · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Fiorentina17th place
LAZ 60%X 24%FIO 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 184 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X24%4.11216%6.20
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.471276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes49%2.06BTTS no51%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Fiorentina1-0 probability 11.9%

Form

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LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Fiorentina – Lazio13 April 20261-0
Lazio – Fiorentina7 January 20262-2
Lazio – Fiorentina26 January 20251-2
Fiorentina – Lazio22 September 20242-1
Fiorentina – Lazio26 February 20242-1
Lazio – Fiorentina30 October 20231-0