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Serie A · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Atalanta13th place
NAP 54%X 25%ATA 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.85X25%3.93221%4.87
Double chance
1X79%1.26X246%2.171275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Atalanta – Napoli22 February 20262-1
Napoli – Atalanta22 November 20253-1
Atalanta – Napoli18 January 20252-3
Napoli – Atalanta3 November 20240-3
Napoli – Atalanta30 March 20240-3
Atalanta – Napoli25 November 20231-2