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Championship · Matchday 27Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · The Valley
Charlton Athletic20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
CHA 16%X 23%MID 62%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 229 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.8
Over 2.549%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.39X23%4.38262%1.63
Double chance
1X38%2.60X284%1.191277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.549%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Charlton Athletic · Columns: Middlesbrough0-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 20263-0
Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic11 March 20260-1
Charlton Athletic – Middlesbrough9 December 20251-2