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Championship · Matchday 27Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Norwich City15th place
WAT 28%X 27%NOR 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Norwich City lead by 137 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Norwich City -0.1, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Norwich City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.54X27%3.70245%2.24
Double chance
1X55%1.81X272%1.391273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Norwich City1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Norwich City – Watford31 October 20263-2
Norwich City – Watford29 December 20250-1
Watford – Norwich City6 December 20253-2
Watford – Norwich City1 February 20250-1
Norwich City – Watford21 September 20244-1
Norwich City – Watford13 February 20244-2