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Championship · Matchday 27Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
DER 25%X 27%MIL 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 117 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Derby County -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Millwall 1.4 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.548%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.03X27%3.71248%2.07
Double chance
1X52%1.93X275%1.331273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Derby County31 October 20264-1
Millwall – Derby County10 March 20261-0
Derby County – Millwall10 December 20251-1
Derby County – Millwall22 February 20250-1
Millwall – Derby County19 October 20241-1
Derby County – Millwall23 February 20221-2