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Championship · Matchday 27Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Burnley22nd place
POR 43%X 28%BUR 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.35X28%3.51229%3.45
Double chance
1X71%1.41X257%1.741272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Portsmouth31 October 20260-0
Portsmouth – Burnley1 February 20250-0
Burnley – Portsmouth21 September 20242-1