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Championship · Matchday 33Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Burnley22nd place
DER 32%X 28%BUR 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 115 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Burnley -0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.10X28%3.54239%2.53
Double chance
1X61%1.65X268%1.481272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Derby County19 September 20261-1
Derby County – Burnley8 April 20250-0
Burnley – Derby County10 December 20240-0