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Championship · Matchday 33Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Birmingham City6th place
MID 55%X 25%BIR 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 65 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Birmingham City 0.3.
  • Middlesbrough take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X25%3.99220%5.10
Double chance
1X80%1.24X245%2.241275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Birmingham City – Middlesbrough19 September 20262-2
Birmingham City – Middlesbrough2 March 20261-3
Middlesbrough – Birmingham City8 November 20252-1
Birmingham City – Middlesbrough12 March 20240-1
Middlesbrough – Birmingham City21 October 20231-0
Birmingham City – Middlesbrough2 January 20231-3