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Championship · Matchday 33Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Bristol City14th place
WAT 32%X 28%BRC 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bristol City lead by 95 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bristol City 0.6, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bristol City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.14X28%3.53240%2.51
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.471272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Bristol City1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bristol City – Watford18 September 20261-0
Bristol City – Watford27 February 20261-2
Watford – Bristol City7 November 20251-1
Bristol City – Watford5 April 20252-1
Watford – Bristol City26 November 20241-0
Bristol City – Watford20 January 20241-1