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La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · RCDE Stadium
Espanyol14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
ESP 9%X 16%BAR 75%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 329 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Espanyol -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 30% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 89% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Over 2.566%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
19%10.64X16%6.25275%1.34
Double chance
1X25%3.94X291%1.101284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.91BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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5
Rows: Espanyol · Columns: Barcelona0-2 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Espanyol11 April 20264-1
Espanyol – Barcelona3 January 20260-2
Espanyol – Barcelona15 May 20250-2
Barcelona – Espanyol3 November 20243-1
Espanyol – Barcelona14 May 20232-4
Barcelona – Espanyol31 December 20221-1