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La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Elche17th place
MAL 30%X 28%ELC 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Elche lead by 90 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Elche 1.6 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Elche score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Elche win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.33X28%3.60242%2.37
Double chance
1X58%1.73X270%1.431272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Elche1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
MálagaLDLDL
ElcheWDDWL