TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Sevilla6th place
VIL 60%X 24%SEV 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Sevilla -0.4.
  • Villarreal lead by 81 rating points.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Sevilla score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X24%4.22217%5.96
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.471276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Sevilla1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Villarreal – Sevilla13 May 20262-3
Sevilla – Villarreal23 September 20251-2
Villarreal – Sevilla25 May 20254-2
Sevilla – Villarreal23 August 20241-2
Villarreal – Sevilla11 May 20243-2
Sevilla – Villarreal3 December 20231-1