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La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Getafe12th place
RMA 78%X 15%GET 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 251 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Getafe -0.5.
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Getafe score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score32%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
178%1.27X15%6.5826%15.82
Double chance
1X94%1.07X222%4.651285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes32%3.17BTTS no68%1.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Getafe2-0 probability 17.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Getafe2 March 20260-1
Getafe – Real Madrid19 October 20250-1
Getafe – Real Madrid23 April 20250-1
Real Madrid – Getafe1 December 20242-0
Getafe – Real Madrid1 February 20240-2
Real Madrid – Getafe2 September 20232-1