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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · Campos de Sport de El Sardinero
Racing Santander16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
RAC 24%X 24%ATH 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Athletic Bilbao lead by 104 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Racing Santander -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Racing Santander 0.8.
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.562%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.19X24%4.15252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.09X276%1.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.62BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Racing Santander · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

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