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La Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 3 January · 16:00 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
RAY 29%X 27%ATM 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 153 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Rayo Vallecano 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Rayo Vallecano -0.3.
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.46X27%3.67244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X271%1.411273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rayo Vallecano · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid15 February 20263-0
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano24 September 20253-2
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano24 April 20253-0
Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid22 September 20241-1
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano31 January 20242-1
Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid28 August 20230-7