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Serie A · Matchday 17Sunday 3 January · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lazio1st place
FIO 24%X 26%LAZ 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 184 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • Lazio take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.20X26%3.78250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.311274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.549%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Fiorentina – Lazio13 April 20261-0
Lazio – Fiorentina7 January 20262-2
Lazio – Fiorentina26 January 20251-2
Fiorentina – Lazio22 September 20242-1
Fiorentina – Lazio26 February 20242-1
Lazio – Fiorentina30 October 20231-0