TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 17Sunday 3 January · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Milan5th place
MON 20%X 22%MIL 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 261 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • If Monza score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.1
Over 2.565%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.01X22%4.45258%1.74
Double chance
1X42%2.36X280%1.251278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.89BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Milan1-2 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Monza24 May 20252-0
Monza – Milan2 November 20240-1
Monza – Milan18 February 20244-2
Milan – Monza17 December 20233-0
Monza – Milan18 February 20230-1
Milan – Monza22 October 20224-1