TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 17Sunday 3 January · 17:30 · Bluenergy Stadium
Udinese19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Atalanta13th place
UDI 29%X 26%ATA 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 122 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atalanta 1.0 points per game, Udinese 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atalanta -0.5, Udinese -1.1.
  • If Udinese score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.42X26%3.85245%2.23
Double chance
1X55%1.81X271%1.411274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.20BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Udinese · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
UdineseLLLDL

Head to head

Atalanta – Udinese7 March 20262-2
Udinese – Atalanta1 November 20251-0
Udinese – Atalanta11 January 20250-0
Atalanta – Udinese10 November 20242-1
Atalanta – Udinese27 January 20242-0
Udinese – Atalanta12 November 20231-1