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Serie A · Matchday 17Sunday 3 January · 17:30 · Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Napoli8th place
PAR 16%X 24%NAP 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 191 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Parma -0.7.
  • If Parma score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.7 – 1.7
Over 2.543%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.09X24%4.20260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.49X284%1.201276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes43%2.33BTTS no57%1.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Parma · Columns: Napoli0-1 probability 14.3%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Parma – Napoli12 April 20261-1
Napoli – Parma14 January 20260-0
Parma – Napoli18 May 20250-0
Napoli – Parma31 August 20242-1