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Serie A · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 17:30 · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Fiorentina17th place
FRO 44%X 26%FIO 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Frosinone 2.0 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • Frosinone lead by 70 rating points.
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.5
Over 2.565%
Both teams score66%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Frosinone win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.29X26%3.83230%3.31
Double chance
1X70%1.43X256%1.771274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes66%1.51BTTS no34%2.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Frosinone · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 10.4%

Form

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Head to head

Fiorentina – Frosinone29 August 20260-3
Fiorentina – Frosinone11 February 20245-1
Frosinone – Fiorentina28 September 20231-1