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Serie A · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Parma18th place
ROM 74%X 18%PAR 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 291 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Parma -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • If Roma score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score37%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
174%1.35X18%5.6428%12.52
Double chance
1X92%1.09X226%3.891282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes37%2.69BTTS no63%1.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Parma2-0 probability 15.8%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Parma – Roma10 May 20262-3
Roma – Parma29 October 20252-1
Parma – Roma16 February 20250-1
Roma – Parma22 December 20245-0