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Serie A · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Inter2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Milan5th place
INT 62%X 22%MIL 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter lead by 104 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Milan 0.5.
  • Inter take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Inter score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.561%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.60X22%4.50215%6.47
Double chance
1X85%1.18X238%2.651278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.55BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Inter · Columns: Milan2-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →
InterWWWWL
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Inter31 October 20263-1
Milan – Inter8 March 20261-0
Inter – Milan23 November 20250-1
Milan – Inter2 February 20251-1
Inter – Milan22 September 20241-2
Milan – Inter22 April 20241-2