TR
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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 24Sunday 14 February · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Lecce14th place
MON 43%X 27%LEC 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Monza 0.1, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Monza score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monza win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.32X27%3.64229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X257%1.761273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Lecce1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Monza13 September 20263-2
Monza – Lecce16 February 20250-0
Lecce – Monza15 December 20242-1
Lecce – Monza27 April 20241-1
Monza – Lecce17 September 20231-1
Monza – Lecce28 May 20230-1